Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Fratelli d'Italia; L'Italia s'è desta
i'm probably gonna kill myself because of this entry and go on an interminable losing streak. but oh well
so yeah. after a mini slump midway through the first two rounds i've been kinda on a roll. few things feel quite like feeling the touch and feeling like the world's best pundit. so the incident of note was a few days ago. poland vs croatia and austria vs germany... one guy at my camp had just lost a few dollars and wanted to recoup it. asked me for a few tips... so after a bit of analysing with him and stuff, it's 1-0;2-0 for croatia and austria eat 1.5. thought poland was utterly crap in the first two matches so they probably can't score. motivatioin wise won't be very strong either cos they need to win and hope austria wins and hope they win by a bigger margin. don't think many of the polish would have thought it possible anyway. then on the austrian side while it's highly unlikely they'd get a win out of it 1.5 quite safe given how they have homeground advantage and germany isn't really playing the best football... and whenever i see 'crisis meetings' between the players where they leave out the coach nothing good usually comes out of it
lo and behold. strike. (if only croatia scored one more. could have earned substantially more. but i'm happy =)) was quite smug going to work the next day. saw the guy in question and guess what? he bought germany to let 1.5 and a draw for poland. lol.
maybe i'm a little insulted by the fact that after asking around for tips and seemingly having no arguments bout it he went for something else instead. but i guess it's human nature. we like to believe things that support what we believe in the first place. even when we're already set on certain decisions many of us still love to ask/research around just to find facts/data to support ur postion and reinforce ur belief. sometimes i fall into the trap too. i already have an inkling what i wanna buy for the day already but still go to some tipsters website and stuff. if they support my prediction, i go away with a confidence boost. if not, more often than not it's taken with a pinch of salt. and i guess tis goes for life in general as well
but i guess this euro has been interesting. always great to have more people watching soccer and talking bout it. it's like 4-5 people at my place who weren't really into epl and stuff started watching and betting on them (already a few have their hands burnt and have withdrawn haha. n00bs! =P). except for the severe lack of sleep everything i'm enjoying it. i love big tournaments, the euros and world cups. the atmosphere and having ball almost daily on the telly. and lady luck seems to love smiling at me during them
if only vishnu, shen hui, vishnu and ravi are still at plt3 haha. my soccer/betting kakis haha. not the same without drawn-out 2hr analysis every day
and as i always like to emphasize, betting for me is mainly just a side entertainment to the games to spice stuff up first and formost. when i started betting regularly a year or two ago, i know right from the start i'm gonna lose money in the long run. the system is against me, and there's no way i'm gonna beat a system that's all about probability. the 'attrition' rate is relatively low as long as i do not get drawn in by that impulse to recoup losses so it's all safe and all. there's been a fair share of uber boring matches that i'm only able to stay awake cos of a few small bets so i would say the money i have donated to the system isn't that badly spent. it's just like popcorn, only u get a real kick out of it when u strike big. oh well, i just can't seem to find the correct words to describe my view of betting, but might as well...
end-note: sheesh. i'm probably gonna be able to sing the italian national anthem if they continue progressing and i keep watching them. i can't shake the tune off my head. sheesh, humming someone else's national anthem haha.
so yeah. after a mini slump midway through the first two rounds i've been kinda on a roll. few things feel quite like feeling the touch and feeling like the world's best pundit. so the incident of note was a few days ago. poland vs croatia and austria vs germany... one guy at my camp had just lost a few dollars and wanted to recoup it. asked me for a few tips... so after a bit of analysing with him and stuff, it's 1-0;2-0 for croatia and austria eat 1.5. thought poland was utterly crap in the first two matches so they probably can't score. motivatioin wise won't be very strong either cos they need to win and hope austria wins and hope they win by a bigger margin. don't think many of the polish would have thought it possible anyway. then on the austrian side while it's highly unlikely they'd get a win out of it 1.5 quite safe given how they have homeground advantage and germany isn't really playing the best football... and whenever i see 'crisis meetings' between the players where they leave out the coach nothing good usually comes out of it
lo and behold. strike. (if only croatia scored one more. could have earned substantially more. but i'm happy =)) was quite smug going to work the next day. saw the guy in question and guess what? he bought germany to let 1.5 and a draw for poland. lol.
maybe i'm a little insulted by the fact that after asking around for tips and seemingly having no arguments bout it he went for something else instead. but i guess it's human nature. we like to believe things that support what we believe in the first place. even when we're already set on certain decisions many of us still love to ask/research around just to find facts/data to support ur postion and reinforce ur belief. sometimes i fall into the trap too. i already have an inkling what i wanna buy for the day already but still go to some tipsters website and stuff. if they support my prediction, i go away with a confidence boost. if not, more often than not it's taken with a pinch of salt. and i guess tis goes for life in general as well
but i guess this euro has been interesting. always great to have more people watching soccer and talking bout it. it's like 4-5 people at my place who weren't really into epl and stuff started watching and betting on them (already a few have their hands burnt and have withdrawn haha. n00bs! =P). except for the severe lack of sleep everything i'm enjoying it. i love big tournaments, the euros and world cups. the atmosphere and having ball almost daily on the telly. and lady luck seems to love smiling at me during them
if only vishnu, shen hui, vishnu and ravi are still at plt3 haha. my soccer/betting kakis haha. not the same without drawn-out 2hr analysis every day
and as i always like to emphasize, betting for me is mainly just a side entertainment to the games to spice stuff up first and formost. when i started betting regularly a year or two ago, i know right from the start i'm gonna lose money in the long run. the system is against me, and there's no way i'm gonna beat a system that's all about probability. the 'attrition' rate is relatively low as long as i do not get drawn in by that impulse to recoup losses so it's all safe and all. there's been a fair share of uber boring matches that i'm only able to stay awake cos of a few small bets so i would say the money i have donated to the system isn't that badly spent. it's just like popcorn, only u get a real kick out of it when u strike big. oh well, i just can't seem to find the correct words to describe my view of betting, but might as well...
end-note: sheesh. i'm probably gonna be able to sing the italian national anthem if they continue progressing and i keep watching them. i can't shake the tune off my head. sheesh, humming someone else's national anthem haha.
